Current copper resources are estimated to exceed 5,000 million tonnes (USGS, 2014 & 2017). According to USGS data, since 1950 there has always been, on average, 40 years of copper reserves and over 200 years of resources left.
Without new capital investments, Commodities Research Unit (CRU) predicts global copper mine production will drop to below 12Mt by 2034, leading to a supply shortfall of more than 15Mt. Over 200 copper mines are expected to run out of ore before 2035, with not enough new mines in the pipeline to take their place.
Copper in a quandary
This is not merely a symptom of soaring demand – copper supply growth has been sluggish in recent years. According to the International Copper Study Group, global mined copper output was 21.8 million tons in 2022, representing an increase of just 1 million tons over three years.
This, together with the ability to infinitely recycle copper, means that society is extremely unlikely to deplete the copper supply, and copper will continue to contribute to global initiatives, like the SDGs and clean energy”.
The countries producing the world's copper
Chile is the top copper producer in the world, with 27% of global copper production. In addition, the country is home to the two largest mines in the world, Escondida and Collahuasi.
According to USGS data, since 1950 there has always been, on average, 40 years of copper reserves and over 200 years of resources left.
Eight percent of the earth's crust is aluminum. That's a lot. Of course, that doesn't mean that recycling aluminum is senseless - there's the energy cost of isolating the aluminum to consider. But literally running out of aluminum is not something to worry about.
Six other resources are likely to be exhausted between 100 and 200 years: antimony, gold, boron, silver, bismuth, and molybdenum, while nine resources have an exhaustion period of between 200 and 1000 years: indium, chromium, zinc, nickel, tungsten, tin, rhenium, selenium, and cadmium.
Copper is a metal that has been deposited from hot sulphur solutions, created in volcanic regions. The hot solutions concentrated the copper up to a thousand times more than would normally be found in rocks. The resultant enriched rocks are called copper ores.
The answer is aluminum.
Commodity price risk
Copper prices are volatile and can be influenced by many factors, including global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. As a result, investing in copper can be risky and may result in significant losses.
As shown in the two figures below, raw material shortages in these two industries, as of Q3 2024, have fully reverted to levels observed in 2014-2019. This is a far cry from readings of 40-50% that were frequently observed in 2021 and 2022.
Some experts have estimated we'll run out of gold to mine as soon as 2050. Around 240,000 tonnes of gold has been mined in total, according to the US Geological Survey, but the below-ground stock of gold reserves was estimated to be around 50,000 tonnes four years ago.
"The supply cuts reinforce our view that the copper market is entering a period of much clearer tightening," wrote Goldman's analysts, who see copper prices hitting $10,000 per ton within the year, and much higher in 2025. The winners of the copper rush will be mainly Chile and Peru, BMI estimates.
The world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. Others, however, see a longer time frame before that shortfall hits. BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025.
The rarest metal on earth is actually francium, but because this unstable element has a half life of a mere 22 minutes, it has no practical use. Tantalum, on the other hand, is used to make capacitors in electronic equipment such as mobile phones, DVD players, video game systems, and computers.
In 2021, zinc reserves are estimated to be 250 Mt of Zn (USGS, 2022). Looking back to published reserves of 190 Mt Zn in 2000 (USG, 2000), it is noticeable that over the years, the ratio of reserves to annual production has remained almost constant with a typical secured supply horizon between 15 and 20 years.
We're talking about things present in great abundance in many regions of the world, that have been extracted at large scales for many years. Things like sand, and the commonly used metals copper and aluminium, and phosphorus.
The extent of the accessible iron ore reserves is not known, though Lester Brown of the Worldwatch Institute suggested in 2006 that iron ore could run out within 64 years (that is, by 2070), based on 2% growth in demand per year.
Explanation. The Earth is not likely to run out of salt due to its abundant presence in the oceans and natural recycling processes. Approximately 97.5% of Earth's water is saline ocean water, which makes it a vast reservoir for salt.
Carbon Nanotubes as a Solution. In this context, one of the most promising materials is carbon nanotubes (CNTs). Advances in nanotechnology and advanced manufacturing are making CNT cables a highly interesting and viable alternative to copper scarcity.
How Much Silver is Left in the Earth? According to Statista as of 2022 there remained approximately 550,000 tonnes of silver within the ground available for mining. Determining the Earth's silver reserves also relies on estimations rather than precise figures due to the multifaceted nature of mining dynamics.